Tracking Thailand’s Economic Growth: Past, Present and Future

Dr.Nonarit Bisonyabut, Watcharin Tantisan

Thailand’s economic trajectory over the past three decades reveals a persistent and structural slowdown, with real GDP growth declining after every major crisis and long-term projections indicating continued deceleration driven by demographic aging, stagnant productivity, and long- standing structural constraints. Using four indicators—real GDP, real GDP per capita, GDP per capita (PPP), and GNI per capita (Atlas method)— this article shows that while Thailand’s domestic purchasing power has continued to rise, it has done so at a progressively slower pace, and its global purchasing power has improved even more weakly. Among these metrics, GNI per capita—the indicator
most widely used for international income classification—signals an especially sharp deterioration in Thailand’s income generation capacity, with recent years showing negative growth and convergence falling below the thresholds required to attain high-income status. Cross-country comparisons further reveal that although Thailand remains ahead of Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and India in income level, it is the only economy in the group whose post-COVID-19 growth falls below both convergence benchmarks, indicating a deeper structural malaise. Forward-looking projections suggest that GDP growth may fall to just 1.2 percent by 2061–80, delaying Thailand’s
transition to high-income status until around 2071— 35 years later than the government’s target—and allowing Vietnam to surpass Thailand in income by the 2040s. Taken together, these findings underscore that Thailand’s growth slowdown is not a temporary fluctuation but reflects fundamental, enduring weaknesses that will require far-reaching structural and institutional reforms, to be explored in subsequent articles of this series.

The Medium- to Long-Term Demand for Housing Corresponds with Thailand’s Transition into an Aging Society

Ratree Prasomsup, Dr.Nonarit Bisonyabut

This study examines future demand for housing purchases and rentals in the medium- to long-term. The research employs an economic modeling approach combined with household survey data and information from domestic and international agencies, covering the period 2009–2021. The findings indicate that both housing purchase and
rental demand are expected to increase over the long term; however, the development of Thailand’s real estate market is likely to be uneven, resulting in housing vacancies in less desirable areas and among lower-income households. Factors associated with
an aging society are projected to reduce housing demand by approximately 0.6–1.3 percent per year, while market competition will intensify between higher-income households and those whose income growth cannot keep pace with rising housing prices (requiring an average growth of 4.68 percent). A key strategy for households unable to compete in the purchase market is to shift toward long-term rental
housing, which can reduce expenses and increase savings for retirement. Policy recommendations include the development of new long-term rental housing products without ownership in less desirable areas and the support of foreign participation—
through long-term leases or appropriate ownership shares —in high -demand areas to enhance competition and stimulate economic activity. These measures will help Thailand better prepare for the challenges of an aging society.